AGU24 Preview: Understanding the Northeast's Changing Snow Patterns: Insights from the NESS Feasibility Study

At the American Geophysical Union’s 2024 Fall Meeting, researchers including University of New Hampshire-based Hubbard Brook Research Foundation trustee Alix Contosta will present “The Northeast Snow Survey (NESS) Feasibility Study,” highlighting shifts in winter conditions in the northeastern United States.

Winter is warming faster than any other season east of the Mississippi River, with temperature increases exceeding +2.5ºC since 1970 concentrated in the Northeast. Over the past century, the region has lost two to three weeks of sustained winter conditions across both low elevations and some mountainous areas.

Most knowledge about winter climate change in the Northeast comes from low-elevation weather stations in populated areas. This has resulted in gaps of snowpack and weather observations across elevational gradients and in remote areas. Less than 5% of all manual and automated stations are at higher elevations above 823 meters. In contrast, the western U.S. has the NRCS Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) network, which monitors snowpack, weather, and other climate elements at over 900 automated stations.

The authors of the NESS Feasibility Study stated, “We found that no single entity comprehensively coordinates automated and manual snow monitoring across the Northeast.” To address this issue, the study is identifying current data resources and gaps, engaging with stakeholders to develop priorities for snowpack and weather monitoring, and designing a proposed station network within the northeastern U.S.

Interest holders from federal, state, tribal, and NGO organizations expressed a strong preference for a comprehensive snow monitoring network. Such a network would support diverse sectors, contextualize climate changes, and address reported data gaps, including under-represented parameters, insufficient spatial and temporal resolution, and a lack of region-wide consistency.

Recent research indicates that changing snow behavior in the Northeast affects ecosystems, water resources, and economies dependent on winter activities. Reduced snowpack can lead to altered streamflow patterns, impacting aquatic habitats and water supplies. The ski industry and other winter recreation sectors face challenges due to shorter seasons and less reliable snowfall.

The NESS team is using these objectives to map network design and plan future phases. By improving snow monitoring, the Northeast can better understand and adapt to changing winter conditions.

AGU24 is in Washington, D.C. from December 9-13, 2024.

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